Can the Illini win a national championship in college football? At the moment, no. While theoretical physics, I'm sure, could prove that yes, it is possible for the Illini to win a BCS Championship, the cold reality of big-time college football as it currently exists in this SEC and Southern Cal-dominated world counsels otherwise. The fact is, while possible, it is the longest shot of any of the teams I steadfastly root for - those teams being, of course, the Padres, Chargers and Illini football and hoops - and certainly not something that looks attainable any time in the foreseeable future.
What, then, would it take for the Illini to win a BCS title? To try to answer that question I've compared the recruiting rankings of the current Illini two-deep to the recruiting rankings of the current two-deep at LSU, a recent national champion and a team on the short-list of those favored to win a title this season. Granted, comparing recruiting rankings - in this case the rankings from Scout - is by no means a concrete indicator of what Illinois needs to do to win a championship. Players are regularly overlooked by scouting services, players develop physically in unexpected ways, and players simply get coached up. Recruiting rankings aren't the be-all end-all. But I hope the comparison will at least provide an approximation of where the Illini currently are, and where they need to be.
Quarterback
LSU Illinois
#14 QB in the '09 class #20 QB in '09 class
#35 QB in the '11 class #67 QB in '11 class
#8 QB in the '10 class #106 QB in '10 class
The Illini are doing okay here. Our top guy was roughly an equal recruit in the same class as LSU's top guy. From there it drops a bit and we start to see why depth is important in college football, but we also see why these pure recruiting rankings are misleading. When I tell you that the #2 at LSU is Stephen Rivers and the #2 guy at Illinois is Reilly O'Toole, do you really see much difference between the two? (Setting aside, of course, that Stephen can call his legendary brother, Philip, for advice at any time.) Here, the rankings are also skewed a bit because LSU's #3 is a transfer from Penn St., Rob Bolden. Any time you can get an immediately eligible former #8 QB recruit with BCS conference experience as a starter you have to take him. Who knows how Les Miles will use Bolden but at minimum he adds to LSU's depth, a key factor in winning national championship. That said, if your starting QB is a top-20 recruit you are doing okay for yourself. And the Illini are there. Not just with Nathan now, but when Aaron Bailey gets to C-U too.
Running Back
LSU Illinois
#27 RB in '10 #92 RB in '11
#25 RB in '11 #107 RB in '11
#3 RB in '09 #94 RB in '12
#10 RB in '10 #93 RB in '12
Things start to get dicey here. I'm as optimistic as anyone about the Illini's young group of running backs, but they weren't thought of very highly by the recruting services, at least not at Scout. If any of them succeed - and they very well might - it will be because Zook and Beckman found some sleeper athletes and put them in a system that suits them. But I don't think you can win a national championship if all your running backs are ranked in the 90s or lower. You need a top 10 guy in the mix, backed up by at least one other 4-star. Or multiple 4-stars like LSU does it.
Wide Receiver
LSU Illinois
#40 WR in '11 #57 WR in '10
#2 QB in '09 NR WR in '11
#44 WR in '10 NR WR in '10
#4 WR in '11 #254 WR in '10
Not looking good. Both LSU and the Illini, as with most football squads at any level, will have more than 4 pass catchers at wide out, but this is a representative sample of the four wideouts on both teams who stand to catch the most passes. LSU, as you can see, is loaded. They'll run out pure quality as starters and then have two former 5-stars, one a sick athlete who was converted from a QB out of high-school, as backups. The Illini have one guy who might crack the rotation on a national championship contending team, but after that it's a group of hard-working overachievers who are lucky to be in the Big Ten. To win a title the Illini need more Arrelious Benns, not Jeremy Whitlows.
TE/FB
LSU Illinois
#14 DE in '08 #7 TE in '11
#10 TE in '10 NR QB in '08
#43 DE in '10 #63 TE in '10
NR MLB in '10 #50 TE in '11
Here is the Illini strength at least on the offensive side of the ball. I like LSU's style of converting athletic guys who were ranked in high school at other positions and moving them to TE or FB. I don't think that's all that uncommon, and indeed, the number 2 TE on the current Illini depth chart, Eddie Viliunas, was an unranked QB coming out of high school. The fact he has risen to number 2 on the depth chart says something about the usefulness of these rankings. That said, the true TE star on the Illini is Jon Davis, the #7 TE in the '11 class. Anytime you recruit a top 10 guy at a position and then back him up with other ranked guys, you are putting yourself in a position for hardware.
Offensive Line
LSU Illinois
#77 OT in '09 NR OT in '09
#16 OG in '11 #57 OT in 11
#67 OT in '09 #16 OT in '08
#11 OG in '12 #20 C in '10
#2 OT in '11 NR OG in '09
#78 OT in '07 #12 C in '11
#21 OT in '09 #81 OT in '10
#7 DT in '09 #128 OT in '11
#26 OG in '08 NR OT in '10
#35 DT in '10 #96 OT in '11
The Illini offensive line will compete but there are too many unranked guys on the depth chart to reach elite status. Of the top 10 guys LSU plans to rotate on the OL this year, only three were ranked outside the top 35 at their position, including a couple guys in the top 10. The Illini have a few guys in that class of player, but the depth is not there. This is another area where the Illini need to improve recruiting, making it that much more of a shame they missed on every single OL recruit in the upcoming '13 class in the state of Illinois.
Defensive Line
LSU Illinois
#6 SLB in '09 #47 DE in '08
#23 TE in '08 NR DE in '10
#7 DE in '09 #87 DT in '09
#8 DE in '11 NR FB in '10
#7 DT in '10 #34 WLB in '08
#9 DT in '09 NR DT in '09
#65 DE in '09 #52 DE in '09
#1 DT in '11 #76 DE in '11
Here is the difference between a good defensive line, filled with sleepers who have been coached up, and a truly elite defensive line filled with pure monster talents. Looking at the numbers you'd hardly know the Illini defensive line is ranked among the top 10 units in the country. That's a testament to Ron Zook's ability to find sleeper talent, and Coach Gilmore's ability to coach 'em up. Looking at LSU's list you wonder whether it could compete as a unit not in the college ranks but in the NFL. Fact is, as good as the Illini defensive line is predicted to be this season, to win a national title you probably need at least a few top 10 guys anchoring the line.
Linebacker
LSU Illinois
#19 WLB in '09 #68 DE in '10
#84 OLB in '12 #54 MLB in '11
#20 SLB in '09 #40 MLB in '10
#35 OLB in '10 #33 MLB in '12
#4 MLB in '09 #102 CB in '08
#87 OLB in '10 #93 OLB in '12
What's this? Are the Illini almost equal here? Well, no, considering the top 3 recruits are all on LSU, including the #4 middle linebacker in the 2009 class, but on average LSU, a national title contender, will put a LB ranked about 41 on the field. The Illini linebackers will average about a 65. The Illini are one or two top 20 or so LB recruits away from fielding an elite LB corps. And that doesn't even account for the Illini's Jonathan Brown who might just be the best LB in the country, a result not indicated by his recruiting rank coming out of high school. The Illini are close at linebacker.
Defensive Backfield
LSU Illinois
#13 S in '10 #11 WR in '09
#23 CB in '12 NR CB in '11
#34 CB in '12 #23 CB in '09
#98 CB in '11 #36 CB in '08
#4 S in '10 #79 WR in '09
#40 S in '11 #54 S in '10
#1 S in '09 #51 WR in '08
#45 S in '11 #52 CB in '08
Even without Tyrann Mathieu, who wasn't all that highly ranked a recruit anyway, LSU has a significant advantage here. Three top 10 guys including a former #1 safety with every other backup except one ranking in the top 40 of their respective class. That's how you do it. The Illini have some quality but lack the depth and truly elite talent to compete at the highest level.
Overall, the comparison above doesn't necessarily reveal anything we didn't already know: the Illini need more elite talent to compete for a national championship. But how elite? Do they need a couple top-10 guys at every position? I think the answer to that question is probably yes. LSU has 17 on their 2-deep; the Illini have 1 (here's lookin' at ya, Jon Davis!) Once you get those top-10 guys, you need to back them up with another range of guys ranked roughly between 11-70 at their position (LSU - 23, Illini - 22: nice!). And you need to find some sleepers - a skill the Zooker, and hopefully Beckman, had down pat. And then after all that, you need to get those guys on campus and coach 'em up. At that point, maybe - maybe - you can get in the conversation about teams capable of winning a national championship. Beyond that it's all grit, preparation, toughness, and luck.
The Illini's road to a national championship begins with winning a few recruiting battles for some elite talent (Lequon Treadwell?!?), while continuing to spot and develop the Mikel Leshoure's and Whitney Mercilus' who, while not ranked as elite talents out of high school, became that type of talent during college, and ultimately ended up in the pros. The Illini can do it.
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